On Monday, July 14, 2025, U.S. stocks closed higher as investors digested renewed trade tensions, anticipated a key inflation report, and looked ahead to the upcoming Q2 earnings season. Despite aggressive new tariff threats from former President Trump, the absence of immediate energy sanctions on Russia and signals of potential negotiation helped restore risk appetite. The S&P 500 recovered to near record highs.
Overview
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Date: Monday, July 14, 2025
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Market Trend: U.S. stocks closed higher
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Key Themes:
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Renewed trade war rhetoric
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CPI report in focus
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Earnings season kickoff
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Fed commentary on inflation
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Market stability despite political risk
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Nasdaq
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S&P 500
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DowJones
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won/ dollar
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Key News
1. Trump issues new tariff threats but leaves room for talks
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Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Russian imports if no agreement is reached within 50 days.
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He also announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican products starting August 1.
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Markets found relief in his suggestion that negotiation remains possible, helping reverse early weakness.
2. S&P 500 rebounds toward record highs
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The S&P 500, after a soft open, rebounded on reduced fear over trade escalation.
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Options markets are pricing in about ±0.6% volatility for the index post-CPI release.
3. CPI release looms as inflation concerns grow
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U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly as investors braced for a potentially hotter-than-expected CPI print.
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Analysts worry that tariff-related cost pass-through could revive inflationary pressures.
4. Earnings season begins with low expectations
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Major U.S. banks kick off Q2 earnings this week.
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Some analysts argue that lowered expectations could result in positive stock surprises.
5. Expert commentary roundup
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UBS: Realized U.S. tariff rate likely stabilized near 15%.
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Traders Edge: Market’s muted reaction signals investors are less sensitive to tariff threats.
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RSM: Tariffs may pressure CPI and force the Fed into difficult decisions.
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GDS Management: Caution remains; the coming weeks will be crucial as nations respond to the August 1 tariff deadline.
U.S. Economic Calendar – July 15, 2025 (Tuesday)
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Time (KST) |
Indicator/Event |
Description |
|---|---|---|
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20:30 |
Empire State Manufacturing Index (July) |
Regional manufacturing activity in New York |
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20:30 |
U.S. Consumer Price Index (June) |
Key inflation reading |
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20:55 |
Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Index |
U.S. retail chain weekly sales performance |
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21:15 |
Fed Governor Bowman Speech |
May provide insight into monetary policy stance |
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21:45 |
Fed Vice Chair Speech |
Could touch on economic outlook and inflation |
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22:45 |
Fed President Barkin Speech |
Comments on labor market and inflation |
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23:45 |
Fed President Collins Speech |
Focus on interest rate policy and economic data |
Insight & Commentary
In my view, the current market rebound reflects a delicate balance of risk and opportunity. While Trump’s renewed tariff threats raised eyebrows, investors appear to have adjusted to the noise and are instead focusing on the actual inflation trajectory and corporate earnings. June CPI data may confirm whether tariff pressures are filtering into prices, which could impact future Fed decisions. Meanwhile, the Q2 earnings season will test how much negative sentiment is already priced in. Overall, this is a moment that calls for both caution and tactical optimism.
