Overview
On August 11, 2025, investors remained cautious as the upcoming release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Despite positive news of President Trump postponing additional tariffs on China, the market sentiment remained indifferent, closing in the red.
| Nasdaq Composite | S&P 500 |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1 South Korean won equals |
Major News Story
The S&P 500 ended below the 6400 mark. Apple, which saw its best weekly gain since 2020, fell after recent highs. Intel climbed amid news of its CEO's meeting with President Trump. Nvidia and AMD saw volatility but closed lower. Nvidia faced U.S. government pressure regarding its revenue from China, agreeing to a 15% offset to U.S. government oversight. Micron, however, rose 4% after revising its fourth-quarter revenue outlook higher. The market focus was keen on any signals from the Federal Reserve about potential interest rate cuts in September, with many expecting at least two rate cuts by December.
Tomorrow's Economic Indicators
| Time | Indicator |
|---|---|
| 10:30 PM | U.S. July Real Income, CPI Rate |
| 10:55 PM | U.S. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 1:00 AM | U.S. EIA Short-term Energy Outlook Report |
| 1:00 AM | USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report |
| 3:00 AM | U.S. July Federal Budget Balance |
| 11:00 PM | Federal Reserve Barkin's Speech |
| 11:30 PM | Federal Reserve Kashkari's Speech |
General Opinion
Currently, markets anticipate further rate cuts, with an 80% likelihood of a 25bp rate cut as early as September. JPMorgan estimates a 70% probability of the S&P 500 rising further post-CPI announcement. However, higher-than-expected data might lead to a market decline. Analysts are divided; while some suggest strong corporate earnings might push the S&P 500's year-end target to 6600, others point out that elevated stock valuations might lead to corrections. Regardless, inflation trends are expected to heavily influence the Fed's trajectory.
