Overview
U.S. stocks closed higher on March 4, 2026. I summarize the session as a rebound driven by easing geopolitical concerns and stronger economic data. Reports suggesting Iran may have explored negotiations with the United States helped cool oil prices and supported investor sentiment.
Market Drivers
- Markets opened higher following a report indicating Iran may have explored ceasefire negotiations with the U.S.
- Oil prices briefly declined for the first time since the conflict began.
- Although Iran denied the report later, crude prices finished only modestly higher.
- Stabilizing energy prices helped risk assets recover.
| Nasdaq | S&P 500 |
| Dow Johnes | Won/Dollar Rate |
Policy and Geopolitical Developments
- The U.S. government signaled potential measures to support oil shipments through the Persian region.
- Meanwhile, the previously announced 15% global tariff policy is expected to take effect this week.
- President Trump expressed confidence that the U.S. currently holds a strategic advantage in the conflict.
Economic Data
- ADP private payroll data exceeded expectations.
- The report reaffirmed the resilience of the U.S. labor market.
- The U.S. services index expanded at the fastest pace since mid-2022.
- Price indicators fell to nearly a one-year low, easing inflation concerns.
Sector Highlights
- Technology stocks, particularly the semiconductor sector, led the market rebound.
- Micron and AMD surged more than 5%.
- After the close, Broadcom announced plans to produce customized chips for OpenAI starting in 2027.
Analyst Perspectives
- Markets face headwinds from geopolitical risks and AI disruption fears.
- However, strong economic fundamentals and corporate earnings have limited the downside.
- Some strategists believe the market may be entering a new bullish phase.
Conclusion
In my view, the market remains supported by resilient fundamentals despite geopolitical uncertainty. As long as economic data and earnings remain solid, downside risks may remain contained.
Key Events – March 5, 2026 (KST)
| Time | Event |
|---|---|
| 22:30 | U.S. Import Price Index |
| 22:30 | U.S. Nonfarm Productivity (Q4) |
| 22:30 | U.S. Unit Labor Costs (Q4) |
| 22:30 | Initial Jobless Claims |
| 00:30 | EIA Natural Gas Storage |
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