November 21, 2025: U.S. Stock Market Falls Amidst NVIDIA Earnings Surprise and Federal Reserve Rate Uncertainty


Overview

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Today's market saw significant fluctuations with the S&P 500 index initially rising by 1.4% following  NVIDIA's strong earnings report, only to close 1.6% lower. The intraday reversal of 3.6% marked the largest since last April's tariff-related turmoil. Investor anxiety about tech stock valuations could not be alleviated even by MBDI's robust performance, leading to high volatility ahead of major option expirations.

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A Major News Story

Despite  NVIDIA's optimistic earnings, doubts about tech stock valuations persisted. Notably, concerns arose from the Federal Reserve's unclear stance on rate cuts. The impending $3.1 trillion option expiration added to market volatility, causing the VIX fear index to rise above 26. Market sentiment was further strained by mixed macroeconomic signals, as September employment data showed more jobs added than expected, yet unemployment also rose. This uncertainty kept the December rate cut probability below 50%.


Tomorrow's Economic Indicators

TimeIndicator
23:45U.S. November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
23:45U.S. November S&P Global Services PMI
23:45U.S. November S&P Global Composite PMI
00:00U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
00:00U.S. November University of Michigan Expected Inflation

A General Opinion

Investors remain cautious amidst  NVIDIA's earnings announcement due to uncertain tech valuations and Federal Reserve policies. The market's volatility is expected to persist, influenced by option expiration and global economic indicators, possibly exacerbating concerns about inflation and market stability.

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